Is the 4% rule still valid?

On US historical data over 30 years, mostly yes. On global pooled data, longer retirements, or after fees, the equivalent rate is closer to 3.2–3.5% at 95% success. Early retirees with 40-50+ year horizons should test lower rates or dynamic strategies.

How does retirement length change the safe rate?

Longer horizons lower the SWR, but with diminishing effect: going from 30 to 50 years typically costs around 0.3–0.5 percentage points because portfolios that survive the first 15–20 years usually keep growing.

Can I target funded ratio instead of success rate?

Yes. The analysis can rank withdrawal rates by funded ratio, which rewards plans whose failures happen late rather than early.

Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

Find the withdrawal rate that matches your target success rate or funded ratio. Visualize how changing your annual withdrawal affects retirement outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo simulations.

Example resultcomputed from the default parameters — adjust anything and hit Run to see your own numbers.

Analysis Metric

Analysis 1: Success Rate vs Withdrawal Rate (Portfolio 1,000,000)

Withdrawal Rates & Amounts by Target Success Rate

Target	Withdrawal Rate	Annual Withdrawal	Needed Portfolio
100%	1.40%	14,000	2,857,143
95%	3.14%	31,355	1,275,720
90%	3.68%	36,764	1,088,032
85%	4.03%	40,329	991,848
80%	4.31%	43,114	927,767
75%	4.61%	46,110	867,493
70%	4.84%	48,368	826,986
60%	5.36%	53,567	746,728
50%	5.85%	58,477	684,026
40%	6.38%	63,786	627,100
30%	7.10%	70,980	563,542
20%	8.13%	81,314	491,918
10%	9.79%	97,905	408,560
0%	12.00%	120,000	333,333

Analysis 2: Success Rate vs Required Portfolio (Annual WD 40,000)

What is a safe withdrawal rate?

A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the fraction of your starting portfolio you can withdraw each year, adjusted for inflation, with an acceptable probability of never running out. The famous 4% rule came from US-only data over 30-year retirements; longer horizons and global data typically support lower rates around 3.2–3.5% at 95% success.

How this calculator finds your rate

The tool sweeps withdrawal rates in fine steps and runs a full Monte Carlo simulation at each one, producing a curve of success rate (or funded ratio) versus withdrawal rate. You can read off the rate matching any target — 90%, 95%, or higher — and see the required portfolio for a given annual spending level.

Success rate vs funded ratio

Success rate is binary: did the portfolio survive the whole retirement? Funded ratio captures partial failures — a plan that fails in year 28 scores far better than one failing in year 5. Comparing both metrics gives a more complete picture of downside risk than success rate alone.

Frequently asked questions

Is the 4% rule still valid?: On US historical data over 30 years, mostly yes. On global pooled data, longer retirements, or after fees, the equivalent rate is closer to 3.2–3.5% at 95% success. Early retirees with 40-50+ year horizons should test lower rates or dynamic strategies.
How does retirement length change the safe rate?: Longer horizons lower the SWR, but with diminishing effect: going from 30 to 50 years typically costs around 0.3–0.5 percentage points because portfolios that survive the first 15–20 years usually keep growing.
Can I target funded ratio instead of success rate?: Yes. The analysis can rank withdrawal rates by funded ratio, which rewards plans whose failures happen late rather than early.