Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Find the withdrawal rate that matches your target success rate or funded ratio. Visualize how changing your annual withdrawal affects retirement outcomes across thousands of Monte Carlo simulations.
| Target | Withdrawal Rate | Annual Withdrawal | Needed Portfolio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 1.20% | 12,000 | 3,333,333 |
| 95% | 2.95% | 29,533 | 1,354,402 |
| 90% | 3.38% | 33,800 | 1,183,432 |
| 85% | 3.69% | 36,857 | 1,085,271 |
| 80% | 3.94% | 39,418 | 1,014,772 |
| 75% | 4.19% | 41,855 | 955,671 |
| 70% | 4.41% | 44,120 | 906,618 |
| 60% | 4.81% | 48,053 | 832,408 |
| 50% | 5.32% | 53,182 | 752,137 |
| 40% | 5.81% | 58,088 | 688,608 |
| 30% | 6.45% | 64,483 | 620,321 |
| 20% | 7.35% | 73,478 | 544,379 |
| 10% | 8.60% | 86,000 | 465,116 |
| 0% | 12.00% | 120,000 | 333,333 |
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the fraction of your starting portfolio you can withdraw each year, adjusted for inflation, with an acceptable probability of never running out. The famous 4% rule came from US-only data over 30-year retirements; longer horizons, global data and fees all push the rate lower — the table below shows how much.
How this calculator finds your rate
The tool sweeps withdrawal rates in fine steps and runs a full Monte Carlo simulation at each one, producing a curve of success rate (or funded ratio) versus withdrawal rate. You can read off the rate matching any target — 90%, 95%, or higher — and see the required portfolio for a given annual spending level.
Success rate vs funded ratio
Success rate is binary: did the portfolio survive the whole retirement? Funded ratio captures partial failures — a plan that fails in year 28 scores far better than one failing in year 5. Comparing both metrics gives a more complete picture of downside risk than success rate alone.
Safe withdrawal rate by retirement length
Reference scenario, precomputed with this site's engine: 40% domestic stock / 40% global stock / 20% bonds, a 0.5% annual fee on every asset, fixed inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and success meaning every planned withdrawal was paid in full. Each figure is the highest rate on a 0.1% grid that still clears the target, from 5,000 simulated paths, so read them as ±0.1 pp. The US columns use the U.S. long-window dataset (from 1900); the pooled columns resample the histories of 16 countries with equal weight. Your own allocation, fees and horizon move these numbers — that is what the calculator above is for.
| Retirement length | US · 90% success | US · 95% success | 16-country pool · 90% | 16-country pool · 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 years | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| 40 years | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| 50 years | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | <2.0% |
| 60 years | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | <2.0% |
Frequently asked questions
- Is the 4% rule still valid?
- On US historical data over 30 years, mostly yes: in the reference scenario above, 4.0% is exactly the rate that clears 90% success on the U.S. long-window data, and 95% needs 3.6%. Pooled 16-country history is harsher (3.1% at 90%), and 40–50-year horizons push the U.S. figure down to 3.5–3.2%. Early retirees should test lower rates or a dynamic strategy.
- How does retirement length change the safe rate?
- Longer horizons lower the SWR, with diminishing effect. In the reference scenario above, going from 30 to 50 years costs about 0.8 percentage points on U.S. data (4.0% → 3.2% at 90% success) and the next ten years only another 0.2 (3.0% at 60 years), because portfolios that survive the first 15–20 years usually keep growing.
- Can I target funded ratio instead of success rate?
- Yes. The analysis can rank withdrawal rates by funded ratio, which rewards plans whose failures happen late rather than early.