What allocation is usually optimal for retirement?

On global pooled data with a guardrail or fixed strategy, broad equity-heavy mixes around 50-70% total stocks with meaningful international exposure tend to sit in the near-optimal zone for long retirements. The exact peak depends on horizon and strategy — run your own parameters.

Should I include international stocks?

For most retirement horizons, yes: international diversification cuts the left tail materially. US-only history makes home bias look free, but that is one country's unusually good draw.

What is the Pareto frontier view for?

It shows allocations where you cannot improve safety (funded ratio) without giving up upside (median final wealth), or vice versa — the efficient menu to choose from.

Retirement Asset Allocation Optimizer

Scan hundreds of combinations of domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds and cash — plus optional gold and US factor sleeves — to find a strong asset allocation for your retirement portfolio. View results as charts, sortable tables, and the full near-optimal candidate zone.

Example resultcomputed from the default parameters — adjust anything and hit Run to see your own numbers.

Data selection (as requested): USA · from 1900 · fire_dataset_intl

Candidate Comparison

Showing: Highest funded ratio in this scan

Example baseline mix (weights comparison only)

40%

20%

Selected candidate

60%

40%

Domestic StockGlobal StockDomestic Bond

Domestic Stock 40% → 60% (+20pp)
Domestic Bond 20% → 0% (-20pp)

Baseline's results in this scan (same simulated paths)

Funded Ratio: 92.9%Success Rate: 78.8%Median Final: 4.15M

Candidate's absolute results in this scan

Funded Ratio: 94.0%Success Rate: 84.3%Median Final: 8.43M

Change vs baseline (same simulated paths)

Funded Ratio: +1.1ppSuccess Rate: +5.4ppMedian Final: +4.28M (+103%)

Candidate shortlist

Allocations whose funded ratio trails the top candidate by at most 1 percentage point (a heuristic cutoff, not a statistical test). Pick within this zone based on personal preference.

Scenarios

What this optimizer does

The optimizer sweeps every combination of the four core assets — domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds and cash — at your chosen step size (gold, US small-cap and US value can ride along as fixed satellite holdings) and runs a Monte Carlo simulation for each. Results appear as charts, a sortable table, and a Pareto frontier of safety versus upside, so you can see not just the single top-scoring mix but the whole near-optimal candidate zone.

Why the near-optimal zone matters more than the peak

Allocation surfaces are flat near the top: dozens of mixes usually sit within one percentage point of the best funded ratio. Any of them is a defensible choice, so secondary preferences — home bias, simplicity, behavioral comfort — can safely decide. Chasing the exact peak of a historical backtest is curve-fitting.

Diversification across 16 countries

With global pooled data, single-country disasters (hyperinflation Germany, wartime Japan or France) enter the simulation at realistic frequency. Portfolios that look optimal on US-only history — often 90%+ equities — typically shift toward more international diversification and moderate bond allocations when judged against the broader historical record.

Frequently asked questions

What allocation is usually optimal for retirement?: On global pooled data with a guardrail or fixed strategy, broad equity-heavy mixes around 50-70% total stocks with meaningful international exposure tend to sit in the near-optimal zone for long retirements. The exact peak depends on horizon and strategy — run your own parameters.
Should I include international stocks?: For most retirement horizons, yes: international diversification cuts the left tail materially. US-only history makes home bias look free, but that is one country's unusually good draw.
What is the Pareto frontier view for?: It shows allocations where you cannot improve safety (funded ratio) without giving up upside (median final wealth), or vice versa — the efficient menu to choose from.